Iran war pressures home heating oil prices
On my kitchen wall is a picture looking down a snowy Sterner Street sidewalk at a path cut by my antique snowblower, a reminder of last winter’s bitter cold. The cold has turned to brutal heat the past few weeks in Confluence and my snowblower is in the shop, but I’ve started thinking again about…
On my kitchen wall is a picture looking down a snowy Sterner Street sidewalk at a path cut by my antique snowblower, a reminder of last winter’s bitter cold.
The cold has turned to brutal heat the past few weeks in Confluence and my snowblower is in the shop, but I’ve started thinking again about the winter and the heating oil I will need to keep warm.
The big question is when to fill my oil tank to get the best price. The short answer, I soon learned, is there is no short answer.
Home heating oil is a distillate, like diesel fuel, and its price is driven by the price of crude oil. The Iran war is driving geopolitical risk, which has added upward pressure to crude oil and distillate fuel markets.
Heating oil future prices that were $2.19 per gallon in July 2025 shot up to $4.06 a year later, the highest level in two months and an 85.3% increase over the year, according to Trading Economics, a digital financial platform. As of July 17, heating oil prices were up nearly 30% for the month alone.
The prices are general market references, not benchmark or retail prices.
So, it’s clear it’s going to cost more for oil heat this winter. How much more depends partly on how much you use.
At last July’s reference prices, you would’ve spent $2,190 for a typical 1,000-gallon heating season. At this July’s prices, keeping your home warm for the winter would nearly double to $4,060.
The big question is where is the price going in the next few months when many people will be topping up home heating oil tanks.
Part of the answer comes from the Middle East, where the collapse of the U.S.-Iran truce and renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have raised fears about fuel shipment disruptions. Seasonal refinery maintenance and years of refinery closures in the U.S. and Europe have further tightened supplies, according to Trading Economics.
Should consumers lock in a purchase price now for home heating oil, thinking that prices will continue to rise with renewed violence in the Middle East? Or, should the decision be put off for a few months to see whether a new truce in the war is achieved and prices begin to drift lower?
These are pressing questions for the 3,520 homeowners in Somerset County the American Community Survey say use home heating oil.
Andy Bratigan, third generation owner and president of Bratigan’s Inc., an Armstrong County fuel supplier, said he’s been hearing those questions a lot lately from customers.
“That’s the million dollar question,” he said. “Everything is so volatile now and has been since February.
“No one has a crystal ball for when this thing will truly end,” he said. “We thought this thing was over five times already.”
Here’s a way for consumers to hedge their bets with what Bratigan calls it the “play it safe” strategy.
If your tank is near empty, consider buying enough oil to fill it half-way, he said. Then in a few months, you could top it off – if you believe that a ceasefire will be achieved in the Middle East and heating oil prices will begin to ease.
“Don’t necessarily load up right now if you don’t have to,” he said. “Let’s hope and pray that this thing is truly done.”